Menu price inflation stayed elevated in July

The dramatic runup in menu prices continued in July, though signs indicate that inflation may have peaked.

Food away-from-home prices rose 0.7% in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. That is a slowdown from the 0.9% inflation reported in June, though it remains at the higher-than-average pace the industry has set for much of this year.

Those prices are up 7.6% over the past 12 months. That remains near a 40-year high in the metric, set last month. 

Inflation at full-service restaurants rose 0.6% in July and are up 8.9% over the past year, remaining near historic highs established earlier this year. Prices at limited-service restaurants rose 0.8%, a slight acceleration, and are up 7.2% over the past 12 months.

Retail food prices, on the other hand, show little sign of a slowdown. They rose 1.3% in July, up from 1% the previous month. They are up 13.1% over the past year as consumers pay dramatically high prices for everything from eggs to breakfast cereal.

That was also the highest rate in 43 years.

Still, in general, consumer prices were flat during the month, giving investors hope that the inflationary run the economy has endured is showing some signs of abating, thanks at least in part to falling gas prices.

Stocks soared in the process and nearly every publicly traded restaurant company was up. Jack in the Box, Red Robin and Outback Steakhouse owner Bloomin’ Brands were all up more than 8%.

The wide gap in price inflation between grocers and restaurants could provide some backstop for industry sales going forward.

Grocery price inflation is 570 basis points higher than menu price inflation, a gap that often steers traffic toward restaurants (the opposite works, too). With gas prices now coming down, that could provide some hope for operators that a consumer reaction many of them are fearing will not be as severe as some might have thought.