Trouble ahead for dessert on the menu: Not-so-sweet news

Menu prices have risen across the board, with add-ons and sides seeing the biggest increases. But dessert prices are up there, rising 3.2% year-over-year from 2023-2024, according to Technomic Ignite Menu data.

That surge is pushing more restaurant customers to forego dessert when they dine out. But that doesn’t mean consumers are giving up cookies, cakes, ice cream and other treats. In fact, dessert consumption has remained steady since 2021. 

But instead of tacking a pricey dessert onto the lunch or dinner check, sweet seekers are shifting their purchasing to retail outlets or making desserts at home. Technomic’s survey of 1,500 consumers found that 39% are now buying packaged desserts from a retail or grocery store, up 4% in the last three years, and 38% bake or make desserts at home, an increase of 5%. 

It looks like fast casuals are losing the most dessert buyers, plummeting 6%, while fast-food spots are down 3%. Interestingly, concepts that specialize in desserts are holding steady, and casual-dining restaurants decreased by only one percentage point. 

Data and image courtesy of Technomic.

The decline in dessert purchases isn’t keeping restaurants from launching new items and limited-time offers in the category. In December, 2023 Technomic reported that 386 desserts made their menu debut in a database of over 7,000 operators, but in November of this year, that number rose to 580.

Seasonal sweets seem to catch consumers’ attention and dollars. This fall, California Pizza Kitchen’s Cinnamon Apple Cobbler and the Apple Crumb Pie Skillet at Ninety Nine Restaurant & Pub both scored high in purchase intent among those surveyed.

Ice cream desserts are also favorites, perhaps because ice cream prices continue to fall. Technomic data reveals that ice cream menu prices are down 9%, driven in part by decreasing prices in specialty ice cream desserts (down 5.3%) and ice cream cake/pie (down 19.1%).

Shakes are one of the most popular ways to menu ice cream, especially in limited-service concepts. Among the LTOs that gained traction recently are Chick-fil-A’s Peppermint Chip Milkshake, Shake Shack’s Apple Cider Donut Shake and the Cookie Butter Shake at Wayback Burgers.